Vance Center Hosts “Fundamental Dilemmas” Dialogue Addressing Guatemala’s Political and Economic Challenges

L-R: Speakers Dulce Veras, Juan Pappier, Yara Tobar, Jaime Chávez Alor, Aloysia Huynh Sonnet, and moderator Daniel Haering. Photo credit: Vance Center

On September 16, 2025, the Cyrus R. Vance Center for International Justice hosted a lively panel discussion, “Fundamental Dilemmas: Guatemala’s Democratic Challenge 2026 as a Basis for National Transformation.”

The conversation brought together civil society leaders, business representatives, and international experts to examine Guatemala’s institutional landscape ahead of scheduled appointments to six critical positions, including in the Attorney General’s Office, the Constitutional Court, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

The event was part of “Fundamental Dilemmas,” a multisectoral initiative led by the Consejo Nacional Empresarial (CNE), an association of Guatemalan business leaders. The initiative aims to foster strategic debate on the structural obstacles impeding Guatemala’s democratic and economic development, while identifying opportunities for collective action at this pivotal moment for the country.

CNE Executive Director Dulce Veras provided opening remarks. Photo credit: Vance Center

Vance Center Associate Executive Director Jaime Chávez Alor previewed the discussion with an explicit warning that “the future of the rule of law in Guatemala is at risk.” He described the upcoming appointments as decisive and pointed to recent concerning examples of democratic backsliding, such as oversight bodies intervening to determine candidates’ eligibility, and the controversial reappointment in 2022 of embattled Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by more than 40 countries for her involvement in alleged corruption. Chávez Alor highlighted the Vance Center’s history of work in Guatemala, including efforts to strengthen judicial independence, press freedom, and human rights and uphold the rule of law.

In opening remarks, CNE Executive Director Dulce Veras framed Guatemala’s institutional crisis in Guatemala around eroding judicial integrity. She described the results of “judicial decay and the normalization of impunity,” and said that key actors like Attorney General Porras view justice as an obstacle to corruption. Veras called on the international community to recognize the stakes of the moment and to stand with Guatemalan civil society during this critical juncture.

Moderator Daniel Haering of Diálogos Guatemala, a public policy think tank, characterized the intensive, multi-actor appointment process as “everything, everywhere, all at once.” He echoed Veras’ description of Porras as a “defender of impunity” but pointed out that confluence of events in 2026 could create a rare opportunity to disrupt entrenched networks of power.

Juan Pappier, Americas Deputy Director at Human Rights Watch, speaks during the panel. Photo credit: Vance Center

Juan Pappier, Americas Deputy Director at Human Rights Watch, offered some regional context, situating Guatemala’s trajectory between more consolidated democracies like Panama, Costa Rica, and Chile, and an authoritarian drift in Nicaragua and El Salvador. He cautioned that the simultaneous appointments could be subject to less oversight, making it easier for organized crime groups to shape outcomes.

Pappier cited examples of criminal actors seeking to manipulate the appointment process by gaining influence within universities, one of the key stakeholders voting on candidates, and urged Guatemalan institutions to partner with international allies, including other universities, to identify and counter these threats. He also called on lawyers to back reform-minded candidates by offering their expertise through legal advocacy and amicus briefs.

Vance Center Associate Executive Director Jaime Chavez Alor speaks during the panel. Photo credit: Vance Center

CNE Board President Yara Tobar speaks during the event. Photo credit: Vance Center

Yara Tobar, President of the CNE’s board, addressed the role of the private sector by stressing the responsibility of business leaders to support civil society and remain accountable. She acknowledged the mixed legacy of the Guatemalan private sector’s involvement in strengthening democratic institutions but emphasized the current moment represents an important opportunity.

Tobar identified some of the key economic factors undermining stability in Guatemala, including concentrated markets, poverty, and reliance on remittances as factors. In a warning to the business community, Tobar cautioned that their inaction could mirror failures in Nicaragua and El Salvador and emphasized that the 2026 appointments will directly shape Guatemala’s June 2027 presidential elections.

Panelist Aloysia Huynh Sonnet, External Legal Advisor to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers. Photo credit: Vance Center

Turning to the role of the legal community, Haering pointed to Patricia Gámez, the new president of Guatemala’s bar association, as a promising leader. Chávez Alor noted that while the association has begun to break from past patterns of impunity, there is much more work to do, especially in encouraging lawyers to make connections between their work and the need for independent institutions.

He added that many corporate lawyers still do not understand or engage in defending judicial independence, even though it is an essential foundation for legal certainty and foreign investment. He urged lawyers, including corporate practitioners, to actively safeguard the integrity of judicial processes in Guatemala.

Drawing on a recent visit to Guatemala, Aloysia Huynh Sonnet, External Legal Advisor to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, reported that many institutional actors stick to a narrow definition of their responsibilities, thereby perpetuating a climate of impunity. At the same time, she noted, civil society groups face threats and intimidation, including the detention of journalists and justice operators. Sonnet called for sustained international attention and support for qualified candidates to fill the upcoming positions.

Moderator Daniel Haering addresses the panelists. Photo credit: Vance Center

The discussion closed with speakers offering their proposals for strategic actions, including raising public awareness of the threats to and importance of judicial independence; uniting reform-minded actors to counter coordinated corruption; and mobilizing discrete groups including academia, philanthropists, lawyers, and the private sector, to back the process comprehensively. Tobar called on President Bernardo Arévalo to use his platform to encourage citizens to participate in the candidate selection process, drawing a clear distinction between actors committed to integrity and those who would only further entrench corruption.